When does the prediction system still lack a basis?

When it is not possible to separate sales from unreceived demand, the unknown supply terms or units of packaging are not aligned. It is worth arranging these facts necessary for a particular plan and a relatively simpler complement rule.

What data does the planner need to obtain from the warehouse and purchases?

Relevant and reserved quantities, batch validity, en route margin, actual receipts and supplier restrictions. A recommendation approved by the planner is forwarded to the purchase process, which returns the status of the order.

How do you check if a more accurate forecast helps manage stocks?

The accuracy of the forecast is compared with the lack of goods, the value of surpluses and write-offs. It is also checked if the forecast allows for a change in purchase, taking into account packaging, delivery terms and validity.

How to evaluate a large customer's one-time purchase before the campaign?

It must be separated from a recurring need if its cause is confirmed. A subsequent drop in orders must also be evaluated when the customer uses the accumulated stock. The mere extension of the sales leap into the future can create surpluses.

FMCG demand forecasting and inventory planning system

How the solution works

The planner aligns the need horizon with the supplier's order and delivery schedule.
Sales history is supplemented by confirmed stock, flaws and significant customer orders.
Recommended quantities are checked against stock position, packaging, supply and validity restrictions.
The approved purchase is transferred for execution, and the actual result is used to assess the quality of the forecast and the planner's corrections.

Key challenges

Demand and procurement planning relies too much on manual calculators

Solution capabilities

The need for a planning solution

The forecast is presented in such detail of the item, warehouse or customer group that the planner can actually change the purchase.

Assessing promotions and shortages

The planner sees which sales reflect the normal need, and which relate to a share, no product received or a one-time order.

Restrictions on Addition

The quantity offered is combined with the ordered stock, delivery term, minimum purchase and remaining time for disposal.

Explained recommendation

The proposed action is accompanied by the assumptions that led to it; an unreliable case is left to the planner's decision.

Verification of the result of the purchase

The actual deficiency, surplus and write-off are compared to the plan, with a separate assessment of the supplier's malfunctions and manual corrections.

Business context

Demand and procurement planning relies too much on manual calculators: Forecasts are not detailed enough by SKU, customer or warehouse, and the impact of stock, seasonality, delivery terms and validity is assessed in individual files. Purchases respond late, freezing working capital, creating flaws and making planning decisions more difficult.
Addition helps not to lose demand: The demand that has increased during the campaign or season may remain unsatisfied, although sales for normal weeks do not seem high. Planning under these circumstances allows consideration of a larger addition where goods can still be disposed of. The sales team has a more reliable basis for combining quantities with customers and suppliers.

Core features

The need for a planning solution
Assessing promotions and shortages
Restrictions on Addition
Explained recommendation
Verification of the result of the purchase

Key integrations

Enterprise resource planning system (ERP): Sales history, purchases, customers, pricing, suppliers and order data.
Warehouse management system (WMS): Actual stocks, reservations, lots and validity information.
Purchase system: Delivery terms, minimum order quantities, purchase orders and their states.
Promotional and commercial calendar: Planned promotions, customer segments, campaign periods and anticipated additional need.
B2B and EDI channels: Relevant order signals, changes in customer demand and information for outstanding orders.

Potential impact (%)

The ranges indicate an illustrative relative change in the metric under the stated assumptions. Results depend on the starting position and actual use of the solution. Percentages for different metrics must not be added together.

Duration of Active Range Shortage

2–12%Decreasing

This illustrative scenario assumes that 10-30% of the metric is attributable to addressable planning and execution shortcomings. That share is assumed to fall by 20-40%. Company data is needed to verify both the addressable share and the resulting change.

Commodity and warehouse days are compared without a suitable sell stock, separately marking an external supply disruption.

Value of surplus stocks and stocks that are difficult to realise during the remaining period

2–12%Decreasing

This illustrative scenario assumes that 10-30% of the metric is attributable to addressable planning and execution shortcomings. That share is assumed to fall by 20-40%. Company data is needed to verify both the addressable share and the resulting change.

Within the same category boundaries, surplus values and write-downs are compared, while observing the duration of the shortfall.

The value of sales lost due to lack of goods

3–14%Decreasing

The sample scenario affects 15-35% of the indicator associated with the problem being addressed. This proportion is assumed to be reduced by 20-40%. The company data checks both the volume and the change achieved.

Documented outstanding order lines are evaluated for scarcity, along with monitoring write-downs and warehouse frozen funds.

Conditional calculation scenarios. The assumptions have not been validated against client measurements.

When this solution is relevant

Demand and procurement planning takes place in spreadsheets
Many product codes, warehouses or customer groups
Common Goods Defects and At the Same Time Excess Stocks in Other Categories
promotions significantly distort normal sales history
Restricted goods make up a significant portion of the range
The purchasing team spends a lot of time collecting data and manually converting

Project scope and implementation

The project can complement the stock system used with a forecast and add-on proposal tool. If the available planning module already performs the necessary calculations, the work involves arranging its data and interfaces. A broader planning decision is justified when multiple warehouses, promotions, validity and supply constraints need to be jointly assessed.

Further development options

Comparison of large client stock scenarios
Analysis of the results of the planner corrections