Direct-to-consumer campaign profitability analysis tool

Marketing and finance teams compare campaign options based on demand, stocks, margin, and returns. It is possible to also estimate the need for money to replenish goods.

The marketing plan, terms of supply, production capacity, returns and stock scenarios are not combined. A successful campaign leads to shortages, while a weak one leads to surplus stocks and cash flow pressures.

How the solution works

  1. The commercial team aligns which revenues and costs are included in the profitability of the order.
  2. Planned campaign demand is compared to stocks, supply terms, and the need for money.
  3. Different sales, advertising prices and returns scenarios are compared.
  4. After the campaign, the plan is reconciled with actual execution and sufficiently mature returns data.

Key challenges

  • Stock and demand planning fails to assess campaign risks
  • Customer acquisition is optimized by revenue rather than profit

Solution capabilities

Comparing campaign scenarios

The team sees the campaign result change as sales volume, discount, advertising price and return assumption change.

Supply and stock restrictions

The planned sale is comparable to the quantity available and timed, so that the budget is not based on outstanding orders.

The need for money

The payment of production or purchase, advertising costs and expected customer receipts are arranged in time; possible returns are seen separately.

Checking the plan by fact

After the campaign, the extent to which the difference was determined by demand, acquisition price, supply or returns is worked out, and these findings are used for another plan.

Business context

Stock and demand planning fails to assess campaign risks
The marketing plan, terms of supply, production capacity, returns and stock scenarios are not combined. A successful campaign leads to shortages, while a weak one leads to surplus stocks and cash flow pressures.
Customer acquisition is optimized by revenue rather than profit
The return on advertising platforms does not include all discounts, product cost, payments, deliveries, returns and service costs. The campaign may seem successful, although its customers and orders reduce margin and cash flow.
The campaign is judged by a feasible and profitable sale
A large number of orders do not help if there is a lack of stock or returns consume the margin. The comparable scenarios allow for a balance between marketing, supply and cash demand. The campaign offered to the buyer has a higher probability of being executed under posted terms.

Core features

  • Comparing campaign scenarios
  • Supply and stock restrictions
  • The need for money
  • Checking the plan by fact

Key integrations

E-commerce
Sales, conversion, prices and return events by product and market.
ERP / financial data
Cost, Margin, Supply and other costs required for a commercial scenario.
Marketing Platforms
Campaign budget, channel costs and planned or actual flow.
Stock/supply data
Balance, ordered margin, delivery deadline and restrictions that may limit the campaign.

Potential impact (%)

The ranges indicate an illustrative relative change in the metric under the stated assumptions. Results depend on the starting position and actual use of the solution. Percentages for different metrics must not be added together.

Share of campaigns that reach the revenue target but do not reach the agreed profitability threshold

3–16%Decreasing

This illustrative scenario assumes that 15-40% of the capacity metric is affected by allocation and preparation. That share is assumed to fall by 20-40%. Company data is needed to verify both the addressable share and the resulting change.

After the campaign, the actual gross profit is compared with the pre-campaign scenario and the main reasons for the deviation are noted. The percentage is calculated on the number of all completed comparable campaigns.

Time for a commercial campaign scenario to prepare and recalculate

12–36%Decreasing

This illustrative scenario assumes that 30-60% of manual data entry and handover work can be addressed. That share is assumed to fall by 40-60%. Company data is needed to verify both the addressable workload and the resulting change.

The active time of the commercial and finance team from the initiation of the script to the approved decision is measured.

Conditional calculation scenarios. The assumptions have not been validated against client measurements.

When this solution is relevant

  • Advertising platforms show sales, but campaign reports do not estimate the cost of returns, discounts and order execution.
  • It is difficult to distinguish between profitable sales gains and purchases that would have occurred without a campaign.

Implementation requirements

Finance and marketing combine profitability methodology, advertising attribution, and execution costs. Returns and pending settlements must be seen separately so that campaign scenarios are compared to a comparable actual outcome.

Further development options

  • The need for money in different campaign scenarios
  • Evaluation of Repurchase Contributions by Customer Group

Frequently asked questions

Adapting the solution to your business