Energy production and supply planning coordination system
Planners combine power generation and supply with forecasts, technical constraints, and market commitments. The changed plan is passed on to the employees responsible for its execution.
The technical or commercial change is only updated in the plan of a part of the team. Production, trade and execution personnel are based on different data of existing obligations. Teams have to urgently combine mismatched quantities and times. The agreement submitted to the client or partner may not match the actual execution possibilities.
How the solution works
- The portfolio, product, time range and decision moment are selected for the plan.
- Forecasts are checked against existing technical and contractual restrictions.
- Permissible variations of regime or position are compared on an agreed economic basis.
- The approved plan or amendment thereof shall be transmitted to the authorised principal and receive an acceptance response.
- The fact and settlement are compared to the saved version of the plan, explaining the reason for the deviation.
Key challenges
- Production and market signals do not consistently lead to coordinated action
- Production, demand and market forecasts are managed separately
- Production regimes are under-optimized by the full economic impact
Solution capabilities
Forecast version
It preserves what was predicted at a specific time of decision and which new facts emerged later.
Permissible Production Mode
When production is controlled, limits on actual power, replacement, start-up and associated heat demand are included.
Commercial commitment
The proposed transaction or order is separated from the accepted position and its valid version.
Variant Economy
The assumption of energy, fuel, start-up, emissions and balancing without double cost aggregation is evaluated for that model.
Adoption of the amendment
The operator of the operations or trade receives an actual plan and returns the acceptance, refusal or restriction.
Deviation check
Actual energy and settlement data are compared over the same interval. Forecast errors, subsequent technical events and data corrections are noted separately.
Business context
- Production and market signals do not consistently lead to coordinated action
- The technical or commercial change is only updated in the plan of a part of the team. Production, trade and execution personnel are based on different data of existing obligations. Teams have to urgently combine mismatched quantities and times. The agreement submitted to the client or partner may not match the actual execution possibilities.
- Production, demand and market forecasts are managed separately
- Production, consumption and price forecasts are updated at different times without showing their version and restrictions not yet included. The plan is accepted under incomparable assumptions, and subsequent analysis misinterprets the error of the forecast.
- Production regimes are under-optimized by the full economic impact
- The mode option is assessed by excluding all the launch, fuel, heat, emissions and contractual limits that are important to that facility. In theory, a better price turns into an impracticable or unexplained economic plan.
- Commercial agreements are combined with production opportunities
- When accepting a supply commitment, one needs to know how much energy devices can produce in the chosen mode. Agreed production and sales plans help to assess the feasibility and cost of additional supply. If the technical condition changes, the commercial team can review the arrangements in a timely manner and inform the participants involved.
Core features
- Forecast version
- Permissible Production Mode
- Commercial commitment
- Variant Economy
- Adoption of the amendment
- Deviation check
Key integrations
- Sources of Forecasts
- Presentation time, horizon, meaning and methodology version.
- Production and maintenance data
- Confirmed availability, technical mode and non-availability event.
- Trading and Portfolio System
- Position taken, execution response and contractual risk limits.
- Measurement and settlement
- Energy fact of the right period and accepted financial result.
Potential impact (%)
The ranges indicate an illustrative relative change in the metric under the stated assumptions. Results depend on the starting position and actual use of the solution. Percentages for different metrics must not be added together.
Delay in the adoption of the plan change
6–25%Decreasing
This illustrative scenario assumes that 20-50% of waiting caused by missing information or unclear responsibility can be addressed. That share is assumed to fall by 30-50%. Company data is needed to verify both the addressable share and the resulting change.
The time between the approved amendment and its adoption for comparable situations is measured.
Portfolio deviation interpretation work
12–36%Decreasing
This illustrative scenario assumes that 30-60% of manual data entry and handover work can be addressed. That share is assumed to fall by 40-60%. Company data is needed to verify both the addressable workload and the resulting change.
An active reconciliation of technical, forecast and settlement differences is measured.
Conditional calculation scenarios. The assumptions have not been validated against client measurements.
When this solution is relevant
- Equipment restrictions and changes to the production plan do not reach the team planning the energy sale in time.
- The accuracy of the predictions is difficult to estimate because the version used to make a trade decision is not preserved.
Implementation requirements
Versions of facility availability, forecasting, and market commitment are compatible for plan execution control. Changes are made to deadlines, responsible participants, and technical limits of modes to make actual execution comparable to the plan in force at the time.
Further development options
- Additional portfolio product plans according to their time and risk rules
- Development of mode options under verified constraints on accumulation or other flexibility measures