Timber assortment and sales planning system
The planner compares the expected amount of wood with actual measurements and buyers' orders. The removal is combined according to prepared sorties and transportation conditions.
Inventory data, tree measurements, terrain, availability, cutting technology, market sorties and actual removal are not linked. The sales plan, the need for machinery and the obligations of the buyer do not correspond to the actual quantity and quality of wood.
How the solution works
- Evaluate volume and assortment assumptions
- Check the conditions of preparation and removal
- Align the buyer's scope
- Obtain actual measurement of the prepared wood
- Update free quantity and contract execution plan
Key challenges
- Wood volume and assortment forecasts are inaccurate
Solution capabilities
The basis of the forecast
Inventory date, measurement method and assortment assumptions are saved to the forecast. The remote estimate is displayed separately from the measurement confirmed for settlement.
Quantity units
The volume with or without bark, erdmeters and solidimeters have a clear meaning and a basis for conversion. The difference is not automatically the loss of wood.
Buyer Matching
Length, diameter, quality and time of admission are checked by contract. Total volume alone is not enough for the promised sortie.
Exit plan
The availability of the stack, road conditions and transport are included in a specific delivery. The actual lack shows the affected commitment.
Business context
- Wood volume and assortment forecasts are inaccurate
- Inventory data, tree measurements, terrain, availability, cutting technology, market sorties and actual removal are not linked. The sales plan, the need for machinery and the obligations of the buyer do not correspond to the actual quantity and quality of wood.
- The timber offer corresponds to the prepared sorties
- The buyer orders wood of specific dimensions and quality, so the total predicted volume is not enough. The relationship of actual measurements to the order allows for more accurate planning of the implementation. The supplier can discuss the available quantity and date of shipment according to the prepared production and transportation conditions.
Core features
- The basis of the forecast
- Quantity units
- Buyer Matching
- Exit plan
Key integrations
- Sources of Inventory, Preparation and Measurement
- Forecast, actual stack and units.
- Sources of contracts and transport
- Buyer's criteria, commitment and fact of exit.
Potential impact (%)
The ranges indicate an illustrative relative change in the metric under the stated assumptions. Results depend on the starting position and actual use of the solution. Percentages for different metrics must not be added together.
Sortiment quantity forecast error
3–16%Decreasing
This illustrative scenario assumes that 15-40% of forecast error is attributable to the data and model used. That share is assumed to fall by 20-40%. Company data is needed to verify both the addressable share and the resulting change.
Measure the absolute difference between predicted and actual volume in cubic metres by sortiment and agreed moment of prediction.
Waiting experienced due to the known unpreparedness of the stack
6–25%Decreasing
This illustrative scenario assumes that 20-50% of waiting caused by missing information or unclear responsibility can be addressed. That share is assumed to fall by 30-50%. Company data is needed to verify both the addressable share and the resulting change.
Measure transport waiting hours due to pre-determined unpreparedness.
Revenue from the sale of timber assortments
1–6%Increasing
In the example scenario, matching the sales of sorties with the demand of buyers is associated with a 20-40% increase in the original value of the indicator. This part is predicted to grow by 5-15%, without other conditions changing.
The actual proceeds of the assortment sales are compared according to the quantity accepted by the buyer. Changes in prices, measurements, transportation and margin are checked separately.
Conditional calculation scenarios. The assumptions have not been validated against client measurements.
When this solution is relevant
- The company plans to sell timber to several buyers based on assortment, quantity and delivery time.
- Data on the total volume of wood is insufficient to verify whether a specific buyer's order can be fulfilled.
Implementation requirements
Data from the quality requirements of the exchanges, sorties and buyers are compatible for timber planning. Forecasts before felling are maintained for comparison with actual measurements, and changes in composition are transmitted to order planning.
Further expansion
- Additional sorties following a reconciliation of their specific measurement and buyer quality methodology.